Lub mathematician xam tus nqi ntawm bitcoin rau 2018

Nqe ntawm Bitcoin rau 2018

Nyob rau lub ib hlis ntuj 22, cov neeg siv Medium Joel Lopez Barata luam tawm ib tug ncej: “Kuv xam tus nqi ntawm bitcoin rau tag nrho lub xyoo 2018. Koj yuav tsis ntseeg hais tias cov kev tshwm sim! “Nrog rau cov disclaimer” qhov no yog cia li ib lub tswv yim, tsis yog ib qho peev council. ” Lopez tus zauv yog raws li nyob rau hauv lub hypothesis hais tias tus cwj pwm ntawm cov bitcoin nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej yuav sib haum mus rau nws tus cwj pwm nyob rau hauv lub yav dhau los. Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no, Lopez considers bitcoin “noj qab nyob zoo nyiaj”, thiab Fiat – tsis muaj: “Lub neej yav tom ntej profit yuav tsum sib npaug zos rau cov xeem, thaum cov neeg feem coob to taub hais tias bitcoin yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws nyiaj.”

Lub Lopez simulation yog raws li nyob rau hauv lub Monte Carlo txoj kev. Qhov no yog ib tug ntau yam ntawm computational algorithms uas cia siab rau rov random kuaj. Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no, Lopez siv txhua hnub duas profit los ntawm bitcoin to taub dab tsi kwv yees tus nqi yuav tsum yog los ntawm lub kawg ntawm 2018.

Yuav kom xam txhua hnub profit, nws faib cov tam sim no bitcoin nqi los ntawm tus nqi rau cov hnub kawg thiab subtracts lub tsev: “Hais txog Monte Carlo simulation nyob rau hauv nyiaj txiag, peb xav hais tias lub neej tom ntej tus nqi cwj pwm ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev yuav tsum zoo xws li nws dhau los coj tus cwj pwm, thiab tsim ib tug ntau ntawm random versions ntawm no yav tom ntej , uas yog lub npe hu nyob rau hauv kev kawm txog zauv raws li “random qho”. Cov tag nrho cov code rau tsim xws li ib tug simulation yog muaj nyob rau ntawm GitHub.

Yuav kom peb tsim txhua random taug kev qauv nyob rau hauv lub simulation, ib tug yuav tsum tau random kuaj ntawm txhua txhua hnub profit los ntawm 2010 rau niaj hnub no, ntxiv lawv thiab ces muab cumulatively kom txog rau thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 31, 2018. Tom qab ntawd, tam sim no tus nqi ntawm bitcoin yog multiplied los ntawm tus nqi ntawm ib tug random taug kev, thiab cov kev tshwm sim yog ib tug simulation ntawm lub neej yav tom ntej tus nqi. Qhov no yuav tsum tau ua ntau lub sij hawm (nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv no – 100,000 lub sij hawm), thiab nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo peb yuav pom qhov kawg nqi faib rau txhua tus random taug kev.

Tus thawj 200 ntawm 100,000 random qho zoo li no:

Nqe ntawm Bitcoin rau 2018
Nws hloov tawm hais tias qhov kawg tus nqi rau feem ntau random mus taug kev yog hom twg los ntawm $ 10,000 rau $ 100,000. Cov nram qab no daim duab qhia tau hais tias lub tsev ntawm zaum kawg tus nqi rau tag nrho cov 100,000 random qho:

xam tus nqi ntawm bitcoin rau 2018
Nws qhia tau hais tias lub feem ntau yuav nqi nws txawv ntawm $ 24,000 thiab $ 90,000. Yuav kom nkag siab txog nws ntau precisely, muaj ob peb txoj kev. thawj, koj muaj peev xwm tsuas xam cov 50% -th feem pua ​​ntawm lub tsev ntawm zaum kawg tus nqi. Nws yuav ua tau sib npaug zos rau $ 58,843. Lwm txoj kev yog mus xam qhov tshwm sim ceev muaj nuj nqi siv cov nuclear ceev kwv yees thiab nrhiav tau cov nqi coj mus rau lub siab tshaj plaws ntawm no muaj nuj nqi – $ 55,530.

Tab sis qhov no yog tsis yog qhov kawg qhia, nws yog tseem zoo dua mus siv nws mus nrhiav tau tus cog qoob loo luv. Rau cov bitcoin nqi, lub 80% cog qoob loo luv yuav $ 13,200 – $ 271,277. Nws tseem ntsiab lus tawm hais tias cov muaj feem uas los ntawm tus kawg ntawm lub xyoo tus nqi yuav tsum tau hauv qab no $ 13,200 yog tib yam li qhov muaj feem hais tias nws yuav ua tau saum toj no $ 271,277.

Tam sim no hais tias cov nuclear ceev kwv yees yog paub, nws yog ua tau rau xam qhov tshwm sim hais tias tus nqi ntawm bitcoin yuav poob los ntawm tus kawg ntawm lub xyoo txheeb ze mus rau ib tug tej yam qhia. Nyob rau hauv kev, qhov yuav tshwm hais tias tus nqi yuav qis los yog sib npaug rau cov theem ntawm Lub ib hlis ntuj 20 ($ 12,000), yog 9.84%.


Sau: Richard Abermann


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